Keene's Pointe Prices Split at the Waterline

In 2026, four homes on Tibet Pointe Circle in Keene's Pointe sold for anywhere from about $425 to about $1,192 a square foot.

That spread is the first problem anyone pricing a home here runs into. Pull comparable sales by community and you get one average. Pull them by street and you get a range so wide it doesn't help. This year's closed sales show something else. Keene's Pointe sales fall into two separate bands with an empty gap between them, and the lot decides which band a home lands in.

The figures below come from the weekly Windermere-area home sales roundups in the West Orange Times & Observer. They cover Keene's Pointe sales reported from January 30 through October 1, 2026. The roundups are a weekly sample, so they don't include every closing, and none of this is a market median. Per-square-foot figures are my own math, using the reported price and living area.

One Street, Four Prices

Tibet Pointe Circle is the clearest example. All four homes were built between 2006 and 2009. All four are large, and all four closed within six months of each other.

The first two homes are almost the same size, and they sold within about $32 a square foot of each other. The third is only about 900 square feet bigger, yet it sold for more than double the price per foot. In its June 25 roundup, the Observer described 9259 as completely renovated in 2025, with views and direct frontage on Lake Tibet.

The two cheaper homes are the same age, the same size, and on the same street as 9259. What sets it apart is the water and a recent renovation. The published sales record doesn't say whether 9204 and 9222 have frontage, so the safe statement is narrow. The one Tibet Pointe Circle sale with confirmed direct lake frontage sold at more than twice the per-foot price of its neighbors.

The Water Behind the Premium

Lake Tibet is part of a larger system, which is one reason frontage there carries so much weight. The Orange County Water Atlas lists Tibet-Butler, at 1,200 acres, as one of the 13 interconnected lakes of the Butler Chain. The chain covers more than 5,000 acres of surface water and has 32 navigable canals. In 1985 it became the first lake system in Florida to receive the state's Outstanding Florida Waters designation, recognizing its water quality and wildlife habitat.

The year's other confirmed Lake Tibet sale fits the same pattern. The Observer's June 4 roundup described 6137 Grosvenor Shore Drive as a custom modern Mediterranean estate on the shores of Lake Tibet. It sold May 28 for $7,650,000, with 9,571 square feet, which works out to about $799 a square foot.

A lake name in a street name doesn't guarantee chain water. Keene's Pointe also has Lake Burden View Drive and Lake Burden Circle. The Water Atlas lists Lake Burden as one of the other lakes in the Windermere Water Navigation Control District, apart from the Butler Chain's 13. The three 2026 sales on those streets landed in the lower band:

• 6330 Lake Burden View Drive sold April 23 for $1,900,000, about $426 a square foot.
• 8340 Lake Burden Circle sold June 24 for $3,250,000, about $475 a square foot.
• 6417 Lake Burden View Drive sold August 26 for $2,784,000, about $469 a square foot.

The sales record doesn't say which of these homes front Lake Burden, so they can't settle the question on their own. They do show that a street named for a lake outside the chain didn't produce the per-foot prices that confirmed Lake Tibet frontage did.

Twenty-Six Sales and an Empty Gap

Put all 31 reported 2026 Keene's Pointe sales with published square footage side by side, and they split cleanly. Twenty-six closed between about $275 and about $516 a square foot. Five closed between about $639 and about $1,192. Nothing sold in between.

The lower band has some internal order of its own. On Camden Park Drive, Claymont Circle, Bowden Way and Camden Loop Way, homes ran from about 2,300 to 3,840 square feet and closed between $950,000 and $1,550,000, or roughly $275 to $464 a foot. On Blakeford Drive, Keene's Pointe Drive, Greatwater Drive and Caymus Loop, prices ran from $1,400,000 to $2,018,800, at about $440 to $516 a foot. The highest figure in the band was 6110 Keene's Pointe Drive: 3,196 square feet, $1,650,000, sold August 21.

Size doesn't explain the jump to the upper band. 8222 Stone Mason Court has 6,834 square feet and sold February 13 for $2,800,000, about $410 a foot. 8340 Lake Burden Circle is almost the same size at 6,848 square feet and sold for about $475. Both are in the lower band. Larger homes usually sell for less per foot, because the land and the kitchen get spread over more rooms. In the upper band the reverse happens. The two biggest homes sold this year, 9121 Tibet Pointe Circle and 6507 Rosella Court, both cleared $600 a foot. Rosella Court, at 10,485 square feet, sold June 9 for $6,700,000.

The fifth upper-band sale was 9733 Carillon Park Drive. The newest home in the set, built in 2014, it sold March 12 for $5,000,000, about $658 a foot. The published sales record doesn't describe the lots at Rosella Court or Carillon Park. Two of the five upper-band sales have confirmed Lake Tibet frontage, and the other three have no lot description in the sources. Even so, the empty gap between $516 and $639 matters. A buyer stepping up within Keene's Pointe in 2026 had no gradual price curve to climb. The price jumped once a home crossed into a different kind of lot.

Time on Market Doesn't Sort by Tier

Days on market are often read as a sign of demand. Here they mostly reflect how each home was priced. Each band produced one of the year's fastest sales and some of its slowest.

In the upper band, 9121 Tibet Pointe Circle sold in five days and Carillon Park Drive in five. 9259 Tibet Pointe Circle took 293 days, and 6137 Grosvenor Shore Drive took 344. In the lower band, 8160 Tibet Butler Drive sold in two days for $1,950,000, while 11333 Camden Park Drive closed October 1 for $950,000 after 370 days.

The 2026 Keene's Pointe roundups don't show the most expensive homes sitting longest or the least expensive selling fastest. Fast and slow sales turned up at every price level. The sales record lists only the final price, so it can't show what each home was first listed at. The pattern fits a market where a home sells quickly once it's priced against the right band, and the band is harder to read at the top, where comparable sales are scarce.

What the Split Means When You Price a Home

For a seller, the first question is which band the lot belongs in, and that question comes before any square-foot math. Pulling every Keene's Pointe sale into one average blends a $275 sale with a $1,192 sale and produces a figure that describes neither. Pulling sales by street fails just as easily, as Tibet Pointe Circle showed this year. The useful comparisons are homes that share the same relationship to the water and are in similar condition. In this sample, that means the lower band has plenty of usable comps and the upper band has only a few.

For a buyer comparing Keene's Pointe with other gated communities in Windermere, the same split explains why one headline price for the community can look too high and too low at once. Homes of about 2,300 to 3,840 square feet on Claymont Circle or Camden Park Drive traded between $950,000 and $1.55 million this year. A Lake Tibet address with chain access traded at more than twice the per-foot price of comparable homes nearby. These are different purchases that happen to share a gate.

The club is a separate question. The Golden Bear Club at Keene's Pointe offers golf and social memberships. The social tier lists dining, tennis, the pool, a snack bar and a fitness center. The club's membership page doesn't spell out how membership relates to owning a home in the community. Ask the club directly about current terms before treating membership as part of the price comparison.

If you want to see where your Keene's Pointe home or a lot you're considering falls among this year's sales, Andy Williams can walk through the comparable sales, lot by lot. Let's Connect.